Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 48.75%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.48%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.