UEFA Conference League

Conference League | League Stage

Oct 2, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
3 - 1
Celje

Samu (7'), Gustavo (36'), Silva (62')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Matko (90+2')
Kucys (70'), Edmilson (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Europa Conference League clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Celje, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, September 28 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Celje

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Bravo 3-2 Celje
Saturday, September 28 at 4.30pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.95%. A win for Celje had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Celje
45.95% ( 0.23)	24.53% ( -0.06)	29.51% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 56.97% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.36% (

0.15)

45.63% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.04% (

0.15)

67.95% (

-0.16)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.04% (

0.15)

19.95% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.88% (

0.26)

52.11% (

-0.27)

Celje Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.17% (

-0.05)

28.82% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.32% (

-0.05)

64.68% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 45.95%

Celje 29.51%

Draw 24.52%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Celje
2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 45.95%	1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.52%	1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 29.51%