Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celje win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for FC Pyunik had a probability of 21.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celje win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a FC Pyunik win it was 1-2 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celje would win this match.