Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.83%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Astana had a probability of 27.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.77%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for an Astana win it was 1-0 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.