UEFA Conference League

Conference League | League Stage

Oct 3, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Astana Arena

Astana
1 - 0
Backa Topola

Kazukolovas (15')
Karimov (84')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jovanovic (7'), Radin (39')

Coverage of the Conference League League Stage clash between Astana and Backa Topola.

Form, Standings, Stats

Astana

Last Game: Astana 3-0 Brann
Thursday, August 29 at 3pm in Europa Conference League

Backa Topola

Last Game: Backa Topola 1-5 M. Tel Aviv
Thursday, August 29 at 8pm in Europa League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Astana win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Astana win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Astana in this match.

Result
Astana	Draw	Backa Topola
43.76% ( -0.52)	25.47% ( 0.45)	30.77% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 54.52% (

-1.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.85% (

-1.91)

49.15% (

1.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.78% (

-1.75)

71.22% (

1.75)

Astana Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.59% (

-1.05)

22.4% (

1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.08% (

-1.59)

55.92% (

1.59)

Backa Topola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.26% (

-0.91)

29.73% (

0.91)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.2% (

-1.12)

65.8% (

1.12)

Score Analysis

Astana 43.76%

Backa Topola 30.77%

Draw 25.46%

Astana	Draw	Backa Topola
1-0 @ 9.97% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.24% Total : 43.76%	1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.46%	0-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.42) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.3% Total : 30.77%