Sporting Lisbon
Taca da Liga | Semi-Finals
Jan 7, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Estadio Pina Manique
Porto

Sporting Lisbon
1 - 0
Porto

Gyokeres (57')
Morita (63'), Pedro Arnauth Barrocas Simoes (73'), Hjulmand (77')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Vieira (66'), Eustaquio (72'), Gonzalez (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Taca da Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Guimaraes 4-4 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, January 3 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Porto

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Porto 4-0 Boavista
Saturday, December 28 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Porto had a probability of 27.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting LisbonDrawPorto
48.65% (0.866 0.87)23.5% (-0.299 -0.3)27.84% (-0.571 -0.57)
Both teams to score 59.29% (0.59399999999999 0.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.96% (0.978 0.98)42.04% (-0.982 -0.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.55% (0.977 0.98)64.44% (-0.98 -0.98)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.54% (0.71299999999999 0.71)17.46% (-0.716 -0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.07% (1.23 1.23)47.93% (-1.235 -1.24)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.83% (0.097999999999999 0.1)28.16% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.14% (0.125 0.13)63.85% (-0.129 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Sporting Lisbon 48.65%
    Porto 27.84%
    Draw 23.5%
Sporting LisbonDrawPorto
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.054 0.05)
1-0 @ 8.58% (-0.178 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.49% (0.021 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.52% (0.157 0.16)
3-0 @ 4.36% (0.112 0.11)
3-2 @ 3.5% (0.109 0.11)
4-1 @ 2.41% (0.122 0.12)
4-0 @ 1.9% (0.091 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.53% (0.081 0.08)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 48.65%
1-1 @ 10.87% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-2 @ 6.01% (0.05 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.92% (-0.22 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.5%
1-2 @ 6.89% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-1 @ 6.23% (-0.26 -0.26)
0-2 @ 3.95% (-0.153 -0.15)
1-3 @ 2.91% (-0.035 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.54% (0.028 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.67% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-4 @ 0.92% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 27.84%

How you voted: Sporting Lisbon vs Porto

Sporting Lisbon
61.1%
Draw
24.8%
Porto
14.2%
113
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2024 8.30pm
Gameweek 4
Sporting Lisbon
2-0
Porto
Gyokeres (72' pen.), Catamo (90+3')
Catamo (28')

Varela (30'), Gonzalez (54'), Otavio (69'), Loader (70'), Eustaquio (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 3, 2024 8.15pm
Final
Sporting Lisbon
3-4
Porto
Inacio (6'), Goncalves (9'), Tcherno Quenda (24')
Quaresma (72'), Amorim (90+4'), Diomande (97')
Galeno (28', 66'), Gonzalez (64'), Jaime (101')
Gonzalez (45+2'), Varela (67')
> Preview
May 26, 2024 5.15pm
Final
Porto
2-1
Sporting Lisbon
Evanilson (25'), Taremi (100' pen.)
Mario (37'), Varela (66'), Pedro (90+1'), Conceicao (97'), Conceicao (103'), Evanilson (104'), Hjulmand (106')
Conceicao (98')
St Juste (20')
Santos (30'), Gyokeres (39'), Braganca (78'), Neto (81'), Paulinho (109'), Otavio (110')
St Juste (29')
> Preview
Apr 28, 2024 8.30pm
Gameweek 31
Porto
2-2
Sporting Lisbon
Evanilson (7'), Pepe (40')
Wendell (76'), Galeno (90')
Gyokeres (87', 88')
St Juste (45+2'), Hjulmand (90+2')
Edwards (90')
> Match Report
Dec 18, 2023 8.15pm
Gameweek 14
Sporting Lisbon
2-0
Porto
Gyokeres (11'), Goncalves (60')
Santos (25'), Quaresma (57'), Inacio (70'), Esgaio (90+7'), Hjulmand (90+7')

Pepe (15'), Varela (17'), Taremi (68'), Conceicao (81')
Pepe (51')
> Preview