Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20
Feb 1, 2025 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Arouca

Nacional
1 - 2
Arouca

Ulisses (45+1')
Vitor (24'), Penha (37'), Ulisses (52'), Esteves (71'), Abidi (87'), Sousa (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gozalbez (5'), Araujo (26' pen.)
Santos (90+8')
Popovic (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Nacional
Saturday, January 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Arouca

All competitions
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Moreirense
Friday, January 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 50.06%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawArouca
25.97% (0.062000000000001 0.06)23.96% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)50.06% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 56.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)45.54% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.13% (0.0049999999999955 0)67.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.6% (0.051999999999992 0.05)31.4% (-0.050999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.23% (0.059000000000005 0.06)67.77% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.75% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)18.25% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.71% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)49.29% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 25.97%
    Arouca 50.06%
    Draw 23.96%
NacionalDrawArouca
1-0 @ 6.64% (0.008 0.01)
2-1 @ 6.54% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.85% (0.01 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.53% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 25.97%
1-1 @ 11.29% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.56% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 9.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.6% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.29% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.45% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.7% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.15% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.32% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 2% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.34% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 50.06%

Head to Head
Aug 25, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 3
Arouca
1-0
Nacional
Araujo (27')
Rodrigues (74'), Mantl (90+7')

Garcia (22'), Butzke (49'), Esteves (73'), Reis (76'), Vitor (90+3'), Dias (90+6'), Margarido (90+2')
> Preview
Jan 28, 2017 4pm
Nacional
1-1
Arouca
Agra (96' pen.)
Washington (48')
Miguel Prata Coelho (84')
Mateus (25'), Goiano (53'), Intima (55'), Sacramento (80'), Jubal (89')
Sacramento (93')
Aug 21, 2016 6pm
Arouca
2-0
Nacional
Crivellaro (24'), Zequinha (30')
Coelho (42')
May 1, 2016 6.15pm
Arouca
3-0
Nacional
Gonzalez (14', 64'), Mateus (38' pen.)
Coelho (11'), Adilson (31')

Washington (37'), Belkaroui (39'), Soares (49')
Belkaroui (40')
Jan 2, 2016 4pm
Nacional
2-2
Arouca
Agra (19' pen.), Gustavo (95')
Agra (44'), Correia (47')
Zequinha (14'), Simao (44')
Velasquez (18'), Rodrigues (35'), Simao (54'), Bracali (71'), Roque Junior (89')
rhs 2.0


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