Primeira Liga | Gameweek 19

Jan 24, 2025 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 0
Moreirense

Jason (77')
Trezza (37'), Fukui (41'), Fontan (54')

FT(HT: 0-0)

(50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Moreirense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca
Saturday, January 18 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Moreirense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Moreirense 0-0 Farense
Sunday, January 19 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
38.65% ( 0.27)	27.71% ( -0.13)	33.64% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 48.45% (

0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.65% (

0.47)

57.35% (

-0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.83% (

0.38)

78.17% (

-0.37)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.19% (

0.39)

28.81% (

-0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.34% (

0.48)

64.66% (

-0.48)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.06% (

0.15)

31.94% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.6% (

0.17)

68.4% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Arouca 38.65%

Moreirense 33.63%

Draw 27.71%

Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 11.45% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.72% Total : 38.65%	1-1 @ 13.07% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.71%	0-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.8% Total : 33.63%