Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 18, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
2 - 2
Arouca

Ndembo-Michel (20'), Santos (40')
Cesar (45')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Esgaio (56'), Faria Camara Lamba (72')
Weverson (80'), Mantl (85'), Nandin (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: O Elvas 2-1 Guimaraes
Sunday, January 12 at 2pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 1-3 Arouca
Saturday, January 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-2 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
49.16% ( 0.14)	24.04% ( -0.52)	26.8% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 56.6% (

2.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.8% (

2.56)

45.2% (

-2.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.45% (

2.4)

67.55% (

-2.4)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.53% (

1.06)

18.48% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.33% (

1.75)

49.68% (

-1.75)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.43% (

1.64)

30.57% (

-1.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.2% (

1.9)

66.8% (

-1.9)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 49.16%

Arouca 26.8%

Draw 24.03%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.73) 2-0 @ 8.05% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.25) 4-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.41% Total : 49.16%	1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.64) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.03%	1-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.43) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.04) Other @ 3% Total : 26.8%