Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16

Dec 29, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Rio Ave
2 - 1
Nacional

Clayton (26', 73' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-1)

Costa (34')
Soumare (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Rio Ave and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rio Ave

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-0 Rio Ave
Monday, December 23 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional
Monday, December 23 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 48.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 25.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.

Result
Rio Ave	Draw	Nacional
48.86% ( 0.36)	25.62% ( 0)	25.52% ( -0.36)

Both teams to score 50.45% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.25% (

-0.28)

52.75% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.61% (

-0.24)

74.38% (

0.24)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.39% (

0.05)

21.6% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.29% (

0.07)

54.71% (

-0.07)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.36% (

-0.46)

35.64% (

0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.59% (

-0.48)

72.41% (

0.48)

Score Analysis

Rio Ave 48.86%

Nacional 25.52%

Draw 25.61%

Rio Ave	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.33% Total : 48.86%	1-1 @ 12.17% 0-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.93% Total : 25.61%	0-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.97% Total : 25.52%