Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 27.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Estrela Amadora in this match.