We said: Nacional 1-0 AVS
Buoyed by their victory over Porto, Nacional will head into the weekend in sky-high spirits as they look to put together a fine run of form and push into the top half of the table.
AVS have proven tough to crack or late, holding out for a share of the spoils in their last five games, but we fancy Margarido's men to come away with all three points in front of their home supporters.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AVS win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 33.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AVS win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.