Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 19, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
3 - 1
AVS

Costa (20' pen.), Dudu (34'), Soumare (45+6')
Soumare (70'), Vitor (86')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Ribeiro (45+3')
Roux (19'), Piazon (76'), Assuncao (79'), Mena Palacios (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and AVS, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Porto
Sunday, January 12 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

AVS

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-1 AVS
Saturday, January 4 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AVS win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 33.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an AVS win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	AVS
33.12% ( -0.16)	26.26% ( -0.04)	40.63% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 52.86% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.3% (

0.11)

51.7% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.52% (

0.1)

73.47% (

-0.09)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.55% (

-0.05)

29.44% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.55% (

-0.06)

65.45% (

0.06)

AVS Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.92% (

0.16)

25.08% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.24% (

0.22)

59.76% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Nacional 33.12%

AVS 40.62%

Draw 26.25%

Nacional	Draw	AVS
1-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.25% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 33.12%	1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.25%	0-1 @ 10.21% 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 40.62%