League One

League One | Gameweek 6

Sep 2, 2023 at 3pm UK

University of Bolton Stadium

Bolton
2 - 1
Derby

Charles (43' pen.), Fornah (65' og.)
Santos (60'), Thomason (70'), Williams (84')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Hourihane (34' pen.)
Smith (43'), Forsyth (70')
Wildsmith (48')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 1-3 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Peterborough 2-4 Derby
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Derby County
34.42% ( 0.03)	26.49%	39.1% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 52.4% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.59% (

52.41% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.91% (

74.09% (

-0)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.03% (

0.02)

28.97% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.14% (

0.03)

64.86% (

-0.03)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.77% (

-0.02)

26.23% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.67% (

-0.02)

61.33% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 34.42%

Derby County 39.09%

Draw 26.48%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.41% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.22% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 34.42%	1-1 @ 12.59% 0-0 @ 7.6% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.48%	0-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.04% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 39.09%