Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 38

Jun 3, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Auxerre
1 - 3
Lens

Niang (71')
Jubal (27')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Claude-Maurice (19', 48'), Openda (78')
Abdul Samed (6'), Haidara (69'), Gradit (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Auxerre and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Auxerre

All competitions

Last Game: Toulouse 1-1 Auxerre
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 3-0 Ajaccio
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

With second place now assured and nothing significant left to fight for, it would only be natural for Lens to take their foot off the gas a tad, and any complacency should no doubt be capitalised on by an Auxerre side fighting for their lives. Haise's side have often flattered to deceive on the road as well, and while we can envisage a fired-up Auxerre gleaning a point on the final day, such an outcome could still drop them below the dotted line depending on results in Brittany. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 60.43%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 16.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.03%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-0 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
Auxerre	Draw	Lens
16.52% ( -0.6)	23.05% ( -0.21)	60.43% ( 0.8)

Both teams to score 45.44% (

-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.11% (

-0.12)

52.88% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.5% (

-0.11)

74.49% (

0.1)

Auxerre Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.84% (

-0.84)

45.16% (

0.83)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.94% (

-0.68)

81.06% (

0.67)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.86% (

0.24)

17.14% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.63% (

0.42)

47.37% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Auxerre 16.52%

Lens 60.42%

Draw 23.04%

Auxerre	Draw	Lens
1-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 4.31% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 2.45% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.45% Total : 16.52%	1-1 @ 10.85% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.04%	0-1 @ 13.65% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 12.03% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 7.08% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 5.63% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.12% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.1% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 60.42%