Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 38

Jun 3, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Auxerre
1 - 3
Lens

Niang (71')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Claude-Maurice (19', 48'), Openda (78')

Reaction

Nantes' Ludovic Blas celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 16, 2023

Auxerre relegated from Ligue 1, Nantes survive on final day

Nantes pulled off a last-minute escape from the Ligue 1 relegation zone on the final day of the season, as Auxerre drop straight back down to Ligue 2.

Jun 3, 21:01

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Auxerre and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Auxerre

All competitions

Last Game: Toulouse 1-1 Auxerre
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens

All competitions

Last Game: Lens 3-0 Ajaccio
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 60.43%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 16.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.03%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-0 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
Auxerre	Draw	Lens
16.52% ( -0.6)	23.05% ( -0.21)	60.43% ( 0.8)

Both teams to score 45.44% (

-0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.11% (

-0.12)

52.88% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.5% (

-0.11)

74.49% (

0.1)

Auxerre Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.84% (

-0.84)

45.16% (

0.83)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.94% (

-0.68)

81.06% (

0.67)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.86% (

0.24)

17.14% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.63% (

0.42)

47.37% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Auxerre 16.52%

Lens 60.42%

Draw 23.04%

Auxerre	Draw	Lens
1-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 4.31% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 2.45% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.45% Total : 16.52%	1-1 @ 10.85% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.04%	0-1 @ 13.65% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 12.03% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 7.08% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 5.63% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.12% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.1% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 60.42%