Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 16.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for an Auxerre win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
63.01% ( 0.2) | 20.62% ( -0.09) | 16.37% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 52.6% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.87% ( 0.22) | 43.13% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.47% ( 0.21) | 65.53% ( -0.21) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.94% ( 0.13) | 13.07% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.35% ( 0.26) | 39.66% ( -0.26) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.5% ( 0) | 39.5% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.81% ( 0) | 76.19% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
2-0 @ 10.68% 1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.18% Total : 63% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.62% | 0-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.43% 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.99% Total : 16.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 30 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 73 | 26 | 47 | 69 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 58 |
3 | Brest | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 |
4 | Lille | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 52 |
5 | Nice | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 48 |
6 | Lens | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 46 |
7 | Rennes | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Marseille | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
9 | Lyon | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 41 |
10 | Reims | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 37 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 37 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 32 |
15 | Metz | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
16 | Le HavreLe Havre | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 28 |
17 | Lorient | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 59 | -23 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 22 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |