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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 69.49%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 11.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.57%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
69.49% ( 0.21) | 18.99% ( -0.04) | 11.52% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 44.86% ( -0.37) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.42% ( -0.22) | 46.58% ( 0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.15% ( -0.21) | 68.85% ( 0.21) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.75% ( -0) | 12.25% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.03% ( -0.01) | 37.98% ( 0.02) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.13% ( -0.42) | 48.87% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.14% ( -0.3) | 83.86% ( 0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
2-0 @ 13.19% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 12.57% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.01% Total : 69.48% | 1-1 @ 9% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.62% Total : 18.99% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 11.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 79 | 37 | 42 | 73 |
2 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 40 | 35 | 71 |
3 | Wrexham | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 70 | 48 | 22 | 70 |
4 | MK Dons | 40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 67 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 67 | 55 | 12 | 65 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 64 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 59 |
8 | Gillingham | 40 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 59 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 58 |
10 | Walsall | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 56 |
11 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 55 |
12 | Morecambe | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 54 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 54 |
14 | Notts County | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 76 | 74 | 2 | 51 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 50 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 50 |
17 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 50 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 49 |
19 | Salford City | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 60 | 73 | -13 | 47 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 65 | 70 | -5 | 44 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 34 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 71 | -26 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
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