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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 64.06%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Hartlepool United |
64.06% ( 0.17) | 21.15% ( -0.12) | 14.79% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 47.22% ( 0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.59% ( 0.37) | 48.41% ( -0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.45% ( 0.34) | 70.55% ( -0.34) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.58% ( 0.17) | 14.42% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.65% ( 0.34) | 42.35% ( -0.34) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.17% ( 0.14) | 44.82% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.21% ( 0.11) | 80.79% ( -0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 12.51% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.82% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.38% Total : 64.05% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.74% Total : 21.15% | 0-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.03% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.37% Total : 14.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 91 | 44 | 47 | 89 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 44 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 87 | 45 | 42 | 82 |
P | Wrexham | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 84 | 51 | 33 | 82 |
4 | MK Dons | 44 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 74 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 70 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 68 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 66 |
8 | Walsall | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 66 | 65 | 1 | 65 |
9 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 64 |
10 | Gillingham | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 63 |
11 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 62 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 44 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 62 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 60 |
14 | Notts County | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 88 | 85 | 3 | 58 |
15 | Morecambe | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 76 | -13 | 57 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 44 | 16 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 71 | -10 | 55 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 54 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 44 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 74 | 78 | -4 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 44 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 63 | 80 | -17 | 47 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 55 | 72 | -17 | 46 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 53 | 78 | -25 | 40 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 41 | 77 | -36 | 36 |
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