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La Liga | Gameweek 21
Jan 25, 2025 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Villarreal logo

Atletico
1 - 1
Villarreal

Lino (58')
Gimenez (33'), De Paul (52'), Le Normand (62')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Moreno (29' pen.)
Pino (22'), Alvarez (63'), Femenia (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atletico 2-1 B. Leverkusen
Tuesday, January 21 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Villarreal 4-0 Mallorca
Monday, January 20 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Villarreal

This is set to be a fascinating match; Villarreal will be the fresher of the two sides and will enter the clash off the back of an excellent performance against Mallorca, but Atletico performed brilliantly with 10 men against Leverkusen, and we are expecting Simeone's side to navigate their way to all three points on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 53.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 22.96%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
53.5% (0.336 0.34) 23.54% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05) 22.96% (-0.286 -0.29)
Both teams to score 54.18% (-0.203 -0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.5% (-0.101 -0.1)46.5% (0.101 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.22% (-0.096 -0.1)68.78% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.68% (0.086000000000013 0.09)17.32% (-0.087 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.32% (0.149 0.15)47.68% (-0.15 -0.15)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.53% (-0.31400000000001 -0.31)34.47% (0.313 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.82% (-0.336 -0.34)71.18% (0.33500000000001 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 53.5%
    Villarreal 22.96%
    Draw 23.53%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
1-0 @ 10.46% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.77% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.18% (0.09 0.09)
3-1 @ 5.71% (0.023 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.36% (0.067 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.04% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.51% (0.018 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.35% (0.036 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 53.5%
1-1 @ 11.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.97% (0.025 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.21% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 23.53%
0-1 @ 6.36% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.94% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-2 @ 3.39% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.11% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.85% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.2% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 22.96%

How you voted: Atletico vs Villarreal

Atletico Madrid
85.2%
Draw
11.1%
Villarreal
3.7%
81
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2024 8.30pm
Gameweek 1
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Danjuma (18'), Koke (37' og.)
Pino (10')
Llorente (20'), Sorloth (45+5')
Le Normand (40'), Barrios (43'), Lino (81'), Simeone (90+4')
Apr 1, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 30
Villarreal
1-2
Atletico
Sorloth (50')
Capoue (27'), Parejo (58'), Mosquera (90+3')
Witsel (9'), Niguez (87')
Griezmann (26'), Barrios (62'), Niguez (90+2')
Nov 12, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 13
Atletico
3-1
Villarreal
Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid22154350212949
2Atletico MadridAtletico22146237142348
3Barcelona22143560243645
4Athletic Bilbao22118333201341
5Villarreal22107544331137
6Rayo Vallecano239862724335
7GironaGirona229493130131
8Osasuna227962731-430
9Mallorca2293101928-930
10Real BetisBetis227872528-329
11Real Sociedad2284101819-128
12Sevilla227782430-628
13Celta Vigo2274113135-425
14Getafe225981717024
15Las PalmasLas Palmas2265112736-923
16Leganes225891930-1123
17Espanyol2265112133-1223
18AlavesAlaves2256112534-921
19Valencia2247112237-1519
20Real ValladolidValladolid2343161548-3315


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