Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.