Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 29.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.