Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.