Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Girona in this match.