Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.07%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 22.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.