Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.