Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.