Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 17.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
61.79% ( 0.3) | 21.02% ( -0.18) | 17.19% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 53.03% ( 0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.57% ( 0.59) | 43.43% ( -0.59) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.17% ( 0.58) | 65.83% ( -0.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.48% ( 0.28) | 13.52% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.42% ( 0.56) | 40.58% ( -0.56) |
Celta Vigo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.32% ( 0.21) | 38.67% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.58% ( 0.2) | 75.41% ( -0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
1-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.03% Total : 61.78% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.02% | 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 2.15% Total : 17.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 24 |
2 | Real Madrid | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Villarreal | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Osasuna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 14 |
7 | Mallorca | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Real BetisBetis | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
11 | GironaGirona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
12 | Sevilla | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 12 |
13 | AlavesAlaves | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
14 | Espanyol | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
15 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
16 | Getafe | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
17 | Leganes | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 8 |
18 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 5 |
20 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
> La Liga Full Table |