Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Kitchee had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.3%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Kitchee win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Kitchee	Draw	Atletico Madrid
29.56% ( 0.08)	22.82% ( 0.04)	47.62% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 63.06% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.37% (

-0.12)

37.63% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.13% (

-0.13)

59.86% (

0.13)

Kitchee Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.23% (

-0.01)

24.77% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.66% (

-0.01)

59.34% (

0.01)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.83% (

-0.09)

16.17% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.37% (

-0.16)

45.63% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Kitchee 29.56%

Atletico Madrid 47.62%

Draw 22.81%

Kitchee	Draw	Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.63% Total : 29.56%	1-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.32% Total : 22.81%	1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.66% Total : 47.62%