Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 14.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.