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La Liga | Gameweek 13
Nov 12, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
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Atletico
3 - 1
Villarreal

Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 6-0 Celtic
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Villarreal

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 1-2 Villarreal
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal

 Villarreal have shown improvement of late, but they are well below the team that impressed for long stages of last season, and we are finding it tough to predict them to pick up a positive result here. Atletico will be desperate to return to winning ways in the league, and Simeone's side should have enough quality to secure all three points this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
50.19% (0.45800000000001 0.46) 23.28% (0.165 0.16) 26.53% (-0.621 -0.62)
Both teams to score 58.95% (-1.146 -1.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.01% (-1.266 -1.27)41.99% (1.269 1.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.6% (-1.284 -1.28)64.4% (1.287 1.29)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.13% (-0.303 -0.3)16.86% (0.305 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.12% (-0.543 -0.54)46.88% (0.545 0.55)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.9% (-1.116 -1.12)29.1% (1.119 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.98% (-1.402 -1.4)65.02% (1.405 1.41)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 50.19%
    Villarreal 26.53%
    Draw 23.27%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.73% (0.404 0.4)
2-0 @ 7.77% (0.283 0.28)
3-1 @ 5.69% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.61% (0.122 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.52% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.53% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.05% (0.035 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.56% (-0.074 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.9% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 50.19%
1-1 @ 10.78% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-0 @ 4.91% (0.274 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.101 -0.1)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.27%
1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-1 @ 6.06% (0.157 0.16)
0-2 @ 3.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-3 @ 2.44% (-0.142 -0.14)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 26.53%

How you voted: Atletico vs Villarreal

Atletico Madrid
88.5%
Draw
7.7%
Villarreal
3.8%
52
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
> Preview
Jan 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 20
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Torres (29'), Moreno (58')
Correa (10'), Kondogbia (67')
Kondogbia (71')
Kondogbia (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 3
Atletico
2-2
Villarreal
Suarez (56'), Mandi (90+4' og.)
Simeone (16'), Correa (28'), Lemar (45'), Suarez (59'), De Paul (85')
Trigueros (52'), Danjuma (74')
Moreno (61'), Rulli (85')
> Preview
Feb 28, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 25
Villarreal
0-2
Atletico

Costa (32'), Albiol (51')
Pedraza (25' og.), Felix (69')
Felipe (35'), Lemar (45+5'), Niguez (47')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid33266171224984
2Barcelona33227468392973
3GironaGirona33225669402971
4Atletico MadridAtletico33204962392364
5Athletic Bilbao331610753332058
6Real Sociedad331312846351151
7Real BetisBetis33121384139249
8Valencia33138123738-147
9Villarreal33129125455-145
10Getafe331013104145-443
11Osasuna33116163749-1239
12Sevilla33911134246-438
13AlavesAlaves33108153138-738
14Las PalmasLas Palmas33107163041-1137
15Rayo Vallecano33713132742-1534
16Mallorca33614132739-1232
17Celta Vigo33710163750-1331
18CadizCadiz33414152346-2326
19Granada3349203661-2521
RAlmeria33111213267-3514
> La Liga Full Table


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