Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.6%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 25.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Real Sociedad win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.