Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.

Result
Real Sociedad	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
47.08% ( 0.18)	26.72% ( 0.28)	26.2% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 47.82% (

-1.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.53% (

-1.31)

56.47% (

1.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.53% (

-1.07)

77.47% (

1.08)

Real Sociedad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.01% (

-0.48)

23.99% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.76% (

-0.7)

58.24% (

0.7)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.91% (

-1.1)

37.09% (

1.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.12% (

-1.12)

73.88% (

1.12)

Score Analysis

Real Sociedad 47.07%

Rayo Vallecano 26.2%

Draw 26.72%

Real Sociedad	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.7% ( 0.46) 2-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.54% Total : 47.07%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.72%	0-1 @ 8.83% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.76% Total : 26.2%