Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Racing Club de Ferrol had a probability of 20.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Racing Club de Ferrol win it was 1-0 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.