Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 55.01%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Racing Club de Ferrol had a probability of 20.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Racing Club de Ferrol win it was 1-0 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.

Result
Racing Club de Ferrol	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
20.29% ( -0.69)	24.7% ( 0.25)	55.01% ( 0.45)

Both teams to score 47.1% (

-1.68)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.9% (

-1.72)

54.1% (

1.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.48% (

-1.46)

75.52% (

1.47)

Racing Club de Ferrol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.59% (

-1.72)

41.41% (

1.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.08% (

-1.56)

77.92% (

1.56)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.4% (

-0.49)

19.6% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.45% (

-0.8)

51.55% (

0.81)

Score Analysis

Racing Club de Ferrol 20.29%

Rayo Vallecano 55%

Draw 24.7%

Racing Club de Ferrol	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.17% Total : 20.29%	1-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.53) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.25) Other @ 0.73% Total : 24.7%	0-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.67) 0-2 @ 10.77% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 5.85% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 5.16% ( -0.13) 0-4 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.17) 1-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.8% Total : 55%