Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 45.41%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.