Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Espanyol would win this match.