Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 60.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 1-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Espanyol win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.