Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 52.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 21.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 52.93% ( | 25.24% ( | 21.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.62% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.5% ( | 54.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.15% ( | 75.85% ( |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.41% ( | 20.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.86% ( | 53.14% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.96% ( | 40.03% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.32% ( | 76.68% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 13.02% 2-0 @ 10.29% ( 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 3-0 @ 5.42% ( 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 4-0 @ 2.14% ( 4-1 @ 1.96% ( Other @ 3.43% Total : 52.92% | 1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0-0 @ 8.24% ( 2-2 @ 4.31% ( Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 1-2 @ 5.46% ( 0-2 @ 3.46% ( 1-3 @ 1.67% ( 2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0-3 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 1.33% Total : 21.83% |