Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.

Result
Heerenveen	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
45.69% ( 0.01)	24.56% ( 0.01)	29.76% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 57.03% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.37% (

-0.04)

45.63% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.05% (

-0.04)

67.95% (

0.04)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.93% (

-0.01)

20.07% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.7% (

-0.02)

52.3% (

0.02)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.35% (

-0.04)

28.65% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.53% (

-0.05)

64.47% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Heerenveen 45.69%

Rayo Vallecano 29.76%

Draw 24.55%

Heerenveen	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
2-1 @ 9.27% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.96% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 45.69%	1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.55%	1-2 @ 7.21% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.01% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 29.76%