Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.68%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
46.68% ( -3.37)	26.5% ( 0.93)	26.82% ( 2.45)

Both teams to score 48.93% (

-0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.73% (

-1.79)

55.27% (

1.8)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.51% (

-1.49)

76.49% (

1.5)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.34% (

-2.27)

23.66% (

2.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.24% (

-3.39)

57.76% (

3.39)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.09% (

1.13)

35.91% (

-1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.31% (

1.14)

72.69% (

-1.13)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 46.68%

Rayo Vallecano 26.82%

Draw 26.5%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.32) 2-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.6) 3-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.47) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.6) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.29) 4-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.34) Other @ 2.67% Total : 46.68%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.41) 0-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.58) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.5%	0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0.83) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.4) 0-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.55) 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.23) Other @ 1.95% Total : 26.82%