Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 2-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.