Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 61.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 15.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
Bahia	Draw	Vasco da Gama
61.82% ( 0.13)	22.43% ( -0.01)	15.75% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 45.63% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.24% (

-0.15)

51.76% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.47% (

-0.13)

73.53% (

0.13)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.73% (

-0.01)

16.27% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.19% (

-0.02)

45.81% (

0.02)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.49% (

-0.24)

45.5% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.67% (

-0.19)

81.33% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Bahia 61.81%

Vasco da Gama 15.75%

Draw 22.42%

Bahia	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.44% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 12.2% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 1.85% Total : 61.81%	1-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.42%	0-1 @ 5.83% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.37% Total : 15.75%