Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.