Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.