Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 49.77%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.95%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.