Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 61.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 16.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.