Requiring just a point to guarantee Premier League survival, Nottingham Forest head to Turf Moor to lock horns with already-relegated Burnley on Sunday afternoon.

The Tricky Trees failed to secure their safety last weekend due to a thrilling climax in a 3-2 loss to Chelsea, while their hosts' demotion was confirmed in a 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

Match preview

Burnley manager Vincent Kompany reacts on May 11, 2024 © Reuters

While Burnley boss Vincent Kompany has earned some plaudits for sticking true to his principles and persisting with his brave style of play in the Premier League, the Clarets will be left to rue a season of naivety and missed opportunities as they prepare for a swift drop back down to the Championship.

The odds were stacked against Burnley in last weekend's battle with Tottenham, where a Jacob Bruun Larsen opener gave the newly-promoted side surprise hope of prolong their survival fight, but Pedro Porro and Micky van de Ven turned the tide to condemn the Clarets to their fate.

Had Kompany's men been able to cling onto their slender advantage in North London, Sunday's game would have taken on the shape of a tantalising relegation six-pointer, but the 19th-placed Clarets can now only hope to pip Luton Town - who are two points clear - to 18th spot in their Premier League farewell.

Defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was just Burnley's third from their last 10 top-flight matches, but failure to convert one point into three has often been their undoing, and the matchday 38 omens are also working against Sunday's claret-clad hosts.

Indeed, Burnley have been beaten in each of their last six Premier League games on the final day of the season and are without a clean sheet in 10 top-flight fixtures at Turf Moor, as well as possessing the worst attacking record at home with just 18 strikes to their name.

Nottingham Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo looks dejected after the match on April 7, 2024 © Reuters

Such statistics will be music to the ears of the Nottingham Forest faithful, whose side were on the brink of securing their top-flight status with a game to spare against Chelsea, where ex-Blues winger Callum Hudson-Odoi and Willy Boly responded to an early Mykhaylo Mudryk strike.

However, Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson completed an eye-catching late City Ground turnaround for Mauricio Pochettino's side in the final 10 minutes, thereby denying Santo's men mathematical safety after Luton Town's failure to overcome West Ham United earlier in the day.

Nevertheless, thanks to their three-point lead over the Hatters, 17th-placed Forest will be safe with a win or draw at Turf Moor, and even if they were to fall short, their significantly superior goal difference, -19 compared to Luton's -31, should be their saving grace.

As such, only a six-goal swing in Luton's favour could send Forest back down to the second tier on Sunday, and even though Santo's side have gone 13 Premier League away matches without earning a clean sheet, few Garibaldi supporters should be fearing a six-goal slaughter.

Then again, Burnley have traditionally had Forest's number in recent times, going unbeaten in eight straight matches against the Tricky Trees since a 2-0 Championship defeat in December 2012, but a repeat of September's 1-1 draw would not be enough for the Clarets to drag their visitors down with them.

Burnley Premier League form:

Nottingham Forest Premier League form:

Team News

Neco Williams in action for Nottingham Forest on August 14, 2022 © Reuters

Despite initial optimism that knee victim Luca Koleosho may have been able to play a part against Tottenham, the fledgling winger was not involved in that relegation-sealing loss, and it is difficult to see him being risked for Sunday afternoon.

Nathan Redmond (thigh), Jordan Beyer (thigh), Aaron Ramsey (knee) and Ameen Al-Dakhil (unspecified) are already guaranteed to miss out for Sunday's hosts, who at least had both Charlie Taylor and Maxime Esteve fit for the Spurs loss.

Kompany should see no reason to make wholesale changes after a largely promising display in the English capital, where Vitinho started in a more advanced left-wing position and could do so again versus Forest.

Regarding their visitors, right-back Neco Williams was the only player confined to the treatment room last weekend due to his thigh injury, and he has now been joined on the sidelines by Nicolas Dominguez, recovering from a hernia operation.

Santo's squad is otherwise well-stocked for Sunday's game - barring some names that he did not wish to mention when addressing the media - although World Cup-winning right-back Gonzalo Montiel has been in the news over allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman in 2019, accusations that the defender denies.

There is nothing to suggest that Montiel will not be involved this weekend, where Anthony Elanga could demote Moussa Niakhate to the bench if Santo feels the need to switch to a more offensive formation.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Muric; Assignon, O'Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Bruun Larsen, Berge, Cullen, Vitinho; Odobert, Foster

Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Montiel, Boly, Murillo, Aina; Yates, Danilo; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood

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We say: Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest

A Burnley side only playing for their own honour could be a dangerous proposition or more straightforward test for Forest, whose superior quality in the final third should carry them over the line either way.

Learning their lessons from last weekend, we have faith in Santo's side to maintain a one-goal advantage this time around to ensure their place in the big time for 2024-25, while consigning Luton to their fate alongside their other two promotees.

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