Euro 2024

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 16, 2024 at 2pm UK

Volksparkstadion

Poland
1 - 2
Netherlands

Buksa (16')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gakpo (29'), Weghorst (83')
Veerman (15')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions

Last Game: Poland 2-1 Turkey
Monday, June 10 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	0	0	0
2	Netherlands	0	0	0
3	Poland	0	0	0
4	Austria	0	0	0

Netherlands

All competitions

Last Game: Netherlands 4-0 Iceland
Monday, June 10 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	0	0	0
2	Netherlands	0	0	0
3	Poland	0	0	0
4	Austria	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Poland had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-0 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.

Result
Poland	Draw	Netherlands
27.34% ( -0.11)	24.97% ( 0.08)	47.68% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 53.99% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.14% (

-0.44)

48.85% (

0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.05% (

-0.4)

70.94% (

0.4)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.93% (

-0.32)

32.07% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.46% (

-0.36)

68.54% (

0.36)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.47% (

-0.17)

20.52% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.98% (

-0.27)

53.02% (

0.26)

Score Analysis

Poland 27.34%

Netherlands 47.68%

Draw 24.96%

Poland	Draw	Netherlands
1-0 @ 7.48% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.26% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.67% Total : 27.34%	1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.96%	0-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.39% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.36% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.73% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 47.68%