Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Final

Mar 26, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
0 - 0
Poland

James (55'), Mepham (98')

FT
(aet)

Piotrowski (50'), Zalewski (72')

Poland win 5-4 on penalties

Reaction

Wales' Daniel James looks dejected after losing the penalty shootout on March 26, 2024

Rob Page comments on "cruel" Wales defeat to Poland in Euro 2024 playoff

Rob Page acknowledges that football can be a "cruel game" as Wales suffer a heart-breaking penalty-shootout defeat to Poland in Tuesday's Euro 2024 playoff final.

Mar 26, 23:39

The Match

Match Report

Wales' Euro 2024 dreams come to a heartbreaking end as Poland win their playoff final 5-4 on penalties following a goalless draw in 120 minutes.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Wales 4-1 Finland
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	8	7	17
2	Croatia	8	9	16
3	Wales	8	0	12
4	Armenia	8	-2	8
5	Latvia	8	-14	3

Poland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Poland 5-1 Estonia
Thursday, March 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Albania	8	8	15
2	Czech Republic	8	6	15
3	Poland	8	0	11
4	Moldova	8	-3	10
5	Faroe Islands	8	-11	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Poland had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Poland win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.

Result
Wales	Draw	Poland
45.57% ( 0.74)	26.57% ( -0.21)	27.86% ( -0.53)

Both teams to score 49.45% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.05% (

0.5)

54.95% (

-0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.77% (

0.41)

76.23% (

-0.41)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.95% (

0.58)

24.05% (

-0.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.68% (

0.82)

58.32% (

-0.82)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.11% (

-0.15)

34.89% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.37% (

-0.16)

71.63% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Wales 45.56%

Poland 27.86%

Draw 26.57%

Wales	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 11.95% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.6% Total : 45.56%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.57%	0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.86%