Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024

Poland national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadion Slaski
Estonia national football team

Poland
5 - 1
Estonia

Frankowski (22'), Zielinski (50'), Piotrowski (70'), Mets (73' og.), Szymanski (76')
Puchacz (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Vetkal (78')
Paskotsi (15')
Paskotsi (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Poland and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Poland 2-0 Latvia
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies

Estonia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Sweden 2-1 Estonia
Friday, January 12 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 70.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 9.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.6%) and 3-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.

Result
PolandDrawEstonia
70.77% (0.60599999999999 0.61)19.71% (-0.12 -0.12)9.52% (-0.4881 -0.49)
Both teams to score 36.25% (-1.304 -1.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.52% (-0.773 -0.77)54.47% (0.772 0.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.16% (-0.647 -0.65)75.83% (0.64500000000001 0.65)
Poland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.72% (-0.058000000000007 -0.06)14.27% (0.055 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.93% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)42.06% (0.111 0.11)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
42.29% (-1.493 -1.49)57.71% (1.491 1.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
10.56% (-0.842 -0.84)89.43% (0.839 0.84)
Score Analysis
    Poland 70.74%
    Estonia 9.52%
    Draw 19.71%
PolandDrawEstonia
1-0 @ 16.03% (0.44 0.44)
2-0 @ 15.6% (0.4 0.4)
3-0 @ 10.12% (0.232 0.23)
2-1 @ 8.58% (-0.177 -0.18)
3-1 @ 5.57% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-0 @ 4.93% (0.107 0.11)
4-1 @ 2.71% (-0.067 -0.07)
5-0 @ 1.92% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.53% (-0.109 -0.11)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 70.74%
1-1 @ 8.82% (-0.164 -0.16)
0-0 @ 8.24% (0.245 0.24)
2-2 @ 2.36% (-0.163 -0.16)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 19.71%
0-1 @ 4.53% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-2 @ 2.42% (-0.163 -0.16)
0-2 @ 1.25% (-0.081 -0.08)
Other @ 1.32%
Total : 9.52%

How you voted: Poland vs Estonia

Poland
88.7%
Draw
8.0%
Estonia
3.3%
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