World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Mar 25, 2025 at 4pm UK

Stade de la Reunification

Uganda
1 - 0
Guinea

Okello (36')
Kayondo (86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Camara (34')

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Africa Group Stage clash between Uganda and Guinea.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uganda

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Mozambique 3-1 Uganda
Thursday, March 20 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Egypt	3	5	9
2	Uganda	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Zimbabwe	3	-5	1

Guinea

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea 0-0 Somalia
Friday, March 21 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 41.79%. A draw had a probability of 30.1% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 28.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Uganda in this match.

Result
Uganda	Draw	Guinea
41.79% ( 0.81)	30.14% ( -0.43)	28.07% ( -0.38)

Both teams to score 40.2% (

0.82)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.35% (

1.08)

66.64% (

-1.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.97% (

0.73)

85.02% (

-0.73)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.37% (

1.04)

31.62% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.97% (

1.19)

68.03% (

-1.19)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.79% (

0.31)

41.21% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.26% (

0.27)

77.74% (

-0.27)

Score Analysis

Uganda 41.79%

Guinea 28.07%

Draw 30.14%

Uganda	Draw	Guinea
1-0 @ 15% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.99% Total : 41.79%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.53) 2-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.14%	0-1 @ 11.55% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 5.9% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.24% Total : 28.07%